Baltic Retail Outlook, 2025 Q1 -
The Baltic retail markets entered 2025 with stable fundamentals and resilient demand. Prime shopping centres across Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn continue to benefit from low vacancy and steady rents, while consumer spending is increasingly directed toward convenience, leisure, and experience-driven formats. Despite inflationary pressure, the retail sector remains adaptable, with growth focused on well-located, community-oriented assets.
Across Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn, retail real estate continues to demonstrate strong adaptability, supported by stable rent levels, low vacancy in prime assets, and a gradual shift toward experience-driven and community-focused retail concepts.
In Lithuania, retail performance remains the strongest in the region, underpinned by solid consumer spending growth, record turnover levels in late 2024, and consistently high occupancy in leading shopping centres. Suburban and neighbourhood retail formats continue to gain traction, reflecting demand for convenience-oriented, everyday services integrated into residential areas.
In Latvia, the retail market remains in a cautious stand-by mode. While overall turnover shows moderate growth, consumer spending patterns are shifting, with increased focus on groceries, restaurants, wellness, and services, and weaker performance in fashion and e-commerce. Limited new supply and the repositioning of existing centres toward mixed-use and service-led destinations define current market dynamics.
In Estonia, improving retail sales and declining interest rates point to a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Vacancy levels remain low, and rents stable, particularly in established shopping centres. Although no major new retail developments are underway in Tallinn, regional towns continue to attract investment, supporting decentralised retail growth.
Across the Baltics, retail real estate is increasingly shaped by tenant mix optimisation, experiential offerings, and proximity to consumers, rather than expansion of traditional large-scale formats. Looking ahead, the sector is expected to remain stable and resilient through 2025, with selective growth opportunities concentrated in well-located, modern, and lifestyle-oriented retail assets.